Predictions

# Statement Average Probability Deadline
1 Firefox will beat Google Chrome N/A over 2 years ago
2 Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl in 2015? 57% over 2 years ago
3 Against Malaria Foundation will still be the top charity on GiveWell after the update in december 2015 75% over 2 years ago
4 A proof or disproof of P = NP will be published in a peer reviewed computer science or mathematics journal before 2050. 45% in over 32 years
5 A herd of elephants will not rampage down Market Street completely destroying UN Plaza. 100% over 2 years ago
6 Before midnight tonight, the New York Times will report that a giant ape has climbed to the top of the Empire State Building. 0% over 2 years ago
7 Within the next hour, CNN will report that Goku's power level is over 9,000! 45% over 2 years ago
8 Nuclear test is committed somewhere in the world 1% over 2 years ago
9 Godzilla attacks Tokyo 11% over 2 years ago
10 The world will not end before midnight tonight. 100% over 2 years ago
11 The world will end before midnight tonight. 0% over 2 years ago
12 Jayson Virissimo will demo his final project sometime during 12/05/2014. 85% over 2 years ago
13 Kaplan will purchase App Academy before 2016. 10% over 1 year ago
14 Kim Jong-un to cease being Leader of North Korea before 2020 30% in over 2 years
15 United States and/or Israel to execute an air strike against Iran before 1 Jan 2016 15% over 1 year ago
16 United States and/or Israel to execute an air strike against Iran before 1 Jan 2015 1% over 2 years ago
17 Bashar al-Assad to be President of Syria on 1 Jan 2016 85% over 1 year ago
18 Shinzo Abe to be Prime Minister of Japan on 1 January 2015 99% over 2 years ago
19 US Economy to be in Recession in 2014 1% over 2 years ago
20 Rand Paul to be Republican Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 23% 6 months ago
21 Jeb Bush to be Republican Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 39% 6 months ago
22 Elizabeth Warren to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 8% 6 months ago
23 Andrew Cuomo to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 10% 6 months ago
24 Hillary Clinton to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 68% 6 months ago
25 Neither a Democratic or Republican Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 1% 6 months ago
26 Republican Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 43% 6 months ago
27 Democratic Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 57% over 2 years ago
28 Apple NASDAQ share price to equal or exceed US$120 in 2014 28% over 2 years ago
29 Facebook NASDAQ share price to equal or exceed US$85 before 1 Jan 2015 5% over 2 years ago
30 Twitter NYSE share price to equal or exceed $75 before 1 Jan 2015 2% over 2 years ago
31 London Fix AM Gold price to be greater than or equal to $1,150 and less than $1,210 on 1 January 2015 55% over 2 years ago
32 91 unleaded petrol to be greater than or equal to 200 cents and less than 205 cents for week ended 26 December 2014 50% over 2 years ago
33 NASA to announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life before 1 Jan 2016 33% over 1 year ago
34 Trans-Pacific Cable to be laid before 2015 2% over 2 years ago
35 Trans-Pacific Cable to be laid before 2017 60% 6 months ago
36 Maximum IPCC5 forecast for sea-level rise in 21st Century under SRES scenarios to be GREATER THAN 50cm 95% over 2 years ago
37 Maximum IPCC5 forecast for sea-level rise in 21st Century under SRES scenarios to be GREATER THAN 55cm 99% over 2 years ago
38 Henry Kissinger dies by 2016 50% over 2 years ago
39 Jesus returns to earth by 2020. 1% over 2 years ago
40 Police will kill a black guy in America this week. 58% over 2 years ago
41 Julian Castro will be Hillary Clinton's vice president ticket mate in 2016 23% 6 months ago
42 Apple will win its iPod antitrust case at the trial court level 65% over 1 year ago
43 The Sony computer hack is not done by North Koreans 65% over 1 year ago
44 Watson's Nobel prize medal will sell for less than $3million 65% over 1 year ago
45 More NFL players will protest using the Ferguson hands up gesture in 2015 60% over 1 year ago
46 The NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy before the end of 2016 53% 6 months ago