Predictions

# Statement Average Probability Deadline
1 Test 50% 6 months ago
2 Firefox will beat Google Chrome N/A almost 4 years ago
3 Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl in 2015? 57% over 3 years ago
4 Against Malaria Foundation will still be the top charity on GiveWell after the update in december 2015 75% almost 4 years ago
5 A proof or disproof of P = NP will be published in a peer reviewed computer science or mathematics journal before 2050. 45% in about 31 years
6 A herd of elephants will not rampage down Market Street completely destroying UN Plaza. 100% almost 4 years ago
7 Before midnight tonight, the New York Times will report that a giant ape has climbed to the top of the Empire State Building. 0% almost 4 years ago
8 Within the next hour, CNN will report that Goku's power level is over 9,000! 45% almost 4 years ago
9 Nuclear test is committed somewhere in the world 1% almost 4 years ago
10 Godzilla attacks Tokyo 11% almost 4 years ago
11 The world will not end before midnight tonight. 100% almost 4 years ago
12 The world will end before midnight tonight. 0% almost 4 years ago
13 Jayson Virissimo will demo his final project sometime during 12/05/2014. 85% almost 4 years ago
14 Kaplan will purchase App Academy before 2016. 10% almost 3 years ago
15 Kim Jong-un to cease being Leader of North Korea before 2020 30% in about 1 year
16 United States and/or Israel to execute an air strike against Iran before 1 Jan 2016 15% almost 3 years ago
17 United States and/or Israel to execute an air strike against Iran before 1 Jan 2015 1% almost 4 years ago
18 Bashar al-Assad to be President of Syria on 1 Jan 2016 85% almost 3 years ago
19 Shinzo Abe to be Prime Minister of Japan on 1 January 2015 99% almost 4 years ago
20 US Economy to be in Recession in 2014 1% almost 4 years ago
21 Rand Paul to be Republican Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 23% almost 2 years ago
22 Jeb Bush to be Republican Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 39% almost 2 years ago
23 Elizabeth Warren to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 8% almost 2 years ago
24 Andrew Cuomo to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 10% almost 2 years ago
25 Hillary Clinton to be Democratic Party nominee for the 2016 Presidential Election 68% almost 2 years ago
26 Neither a Democratic or Republican Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 1% almost 2 years ago
27 Republican Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 43% almost 2 years ago
28 Democratic Party candidate to be elected US President in 2016 57% almost 4 years ago
29 Apple NASDAQ share price to equal or exceed US$120 in 2014 28% almost 4 years ago
30 Facebook NASDAQ share price to equal or exceed US$85 before 1 Jan 2015 5% almost 4 years ago
31 Twitter NYSE share price to equal or exceed $75 before 1 Jan 2015 2% almost 4 years ago
32 London Fix AM Gold price to be greater than or equal to $1,150 and less than $1,210 on 1 January 2015 55% almost 4 years ago
33 91 unleaded petrol to be greater than or equal to 200 cents and less than 205 cents for week ended 26 December 2014 50% almost 4 years ago
34 NASA to announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life before 1 Jan 2016 33% over 2 years ago
35 Trans-Pacific Cable to be laid before 2015 2% almost 4 years ago
36 Trans-Pacific Cable to be laid before 2017 60% almost 2 years ago
37 Maximum IPCC5 forecast for sea-level rise in 21st Century under SRES scenarios to be GREATER THAN 50cm 95% almost 4 years ago
38 Maximum IPCC5 forecast for sea-level rise in 21st Century under SRES scenarios to be GREATER THAN 55cm 99% almost 4 years ago
39 Henry Kissinger dies by 2016 50% almost 4 years ago
40 Jesus returns to earth by 2020. 1% almost 4 years ago
41 Police will kill a black guy in America this week. 58% almost 4 years ago
42 Julian Castro will be Hillary Clinton's vice president ticket mate in 2016 23% almost 2 years ago
43 Apple will win its iPod antitrust case at the trial court level 65% almost 3 years ago
44 The Sony computer hack is not done by North Koreans 65% almost 3 years ago
45 Watson's Nobel prize medal will sell for less than $3million 65% almost 3 years ago
46 More NFL players will protest using the Ferguson hands up gesture in 2015 60% almost 3 years ago
47 The NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy before the end of 2016 53% almost 2 years ago