Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionNote allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
A bet is a tax on bullshit.Alex Tabarrok
Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions.Daniel Kahneman
There is one rule that's very simple, but not easy: observe reality and adjust.Ran Prieur