Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionNote allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Reality is not optional.Thomas Sowell
It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics.George Bernard Shaw
A bet is a tax on bullshit.Alex Tabarrok