Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionNote allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Statistics is applied philosophy of science.Alexander Philip Dawid
A bet is a tax on bullshit.Alex Tabarrok
Shouldn't 'it works like a charm' be said about things that don't work?Jason Roy